BoJ’s Historic Rate Hike & ECB’s Cut Signals Shake EUR/JPY

Quick Look

During the early European trading hours on Thursday, the EUR/JPY cross is trading with a slight softness, just above the 165.00 level. This subtle downtick finds its roots in the anticipation of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) coupled with apprehensions regarding potential foreign exchange interventions by Japanese authorities. Market participants are keenly focusing on the upcoming preliminary German and Eurozone HCOB. In their quest for fresh catalysts, market participants are closely watching the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March. Currently, the EUR/JPY stands at 165.15, experiencing a slight decline of 0.03% for the day.

BoJ’s First Rate Hike in 17 Years Jolts EUR/JPY Outlook

On Tuesday, the BoJ embarked on a significant policy shift, increasing interest rates for the first time in 17 years. This move has led investors to speculate about the possibility and extent of future rate hikes within the year.

Reinforcing these expectations, reports from the Nikkei newspaper suggest that the central bank might consider additional hikes before the year’s end, thus bolstering the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR).

Concurrently, verbal interventions from Japanese authorities are likely to strengthen the JPY and limit the EUR/JPY’s upside in the short term. Early on Thursday, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki underscored the importance of currency stability.

Anticipating Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies

The European landscape presents a contrasting scenario. Specifically, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is signalling potential rate cuts in the upcoming June meeting. This stance is based on the expectation that forthcoming data will provide deeper insights. These insights pertain to inflation trends and labour market dynamics. Consequently, market projections currently foresee up to three rate cuts by the ECB by the end of the year. Additionally, there is a possible fourth cut on the horizon.

The impending release of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Germany and the Eurozone, followed by the German Buba Monthly Report, stands as a critical juncture for the EUR/JPY cross. Furthermore, the release of the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is eagerly awaited. Analysts anticipate the Core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, to register a 2.8% increase in February, up from 2.0% in January. These events are poised to offer valuable insights and trading opportunities for those navigating the EUR/JPY landscape.

As the financial world braces for these pivotal developments, the interplay between central bank policies and key economic indicators will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of the EUR/JPY cross. Investors and traders alike remain vigilant, ready to adjust their strategies in response to the evolving economic and monetary environment.

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